March 25

Good morning! Quieter weather is expected across much of the United States the next couple of days as can be seen in the weather map and precipitation forecast, with only some pockets of light rain and snow across the country. The main focus for precipitation through Thursday will be an upper level disturbance moving through the southern part of the jet stream that will spread some heavy showers/storms across Texas, with the heaviest rainfall near the coast where a slight (level 2 of 4) risk of flash flooding has been outlooked on Thursday by the Weather Prediction Center. A new storm system will start to spread rain and mountain snow along the Pacific Northwest coast Thursday as well, while some showers and storms will also impact parts of the Midwest.

Record warm temperatures will be the biggest weather story the next couple of days in the western and southern United States. Numerous locations will likely set records for warm maximum and minimum temperatures (forecast near or above record highs for today and Wednesday shown below).

The weather pattern will become somewhat more active again late week and into the weekend. The new storm system moving into the west coast on Thursday will gradually move east, and by Sunday it will begin to interact with moisture coming north from the Gulf to set the stage for a more favorable setup for severe thunderstorms. SPC has outlooked a large area of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys for a risk of severe storms on Sunday as can be seen below.

Right now, to me this setup looks like one where a rather large area will have the risk for severe storms – including tornadoes – but not where that entire large area will have a higher end risk of severe storms. Obviously, as we get closer to the event we can start to refine the risk, and we will discuss more as the week goes on. I am also planning a deeper dive post into the research and tools used for forecasting severe weather in the medium and long range (day 4 and beyond), so look for that sometime in the next few days.

Eastern Wildfire Update

SPC has outlooked western parts of the Carolinas for elevated fire danger today due to gusty northwest winds and relatively dry conditions. While the most expansive and driest drought conditions in the country are currently in the Southwest and Midwest as we discussed yesterday, parts of the East have experienced drought this winter as well. This has been particularly impactful in the Carolinas where the numerous damaged and downed trees from Hurricane Helene has provided extensive fuel for wildfires given the drier conditions, and several impactful wildfires are being fought currently as this Yahoo News article discusses. The Northeast has also experienced drought, and New Jersey in particular has had issues with wildfires as this article also discusses. All of these areas – along with Florida as we discussed in a post last week – will continue to face potential wildfire issues until more substantial rain occurs, and this will be a situation to watch as we go into spring.