Flash flooding a risk in the Carolinas again today

Jul 24, 2026

Happy Friday! Lots of weather to talk about today — and going to start with temperatures. While much of the eastern half of the United States is experiencing a welcome break from summer heat with even some record low temperatures in parts of the Northeast, record heat is the big story for much of the planet. Japan has been once again experiencing prolonged periods of record heat this summer, and per climatologist M. Herrera in recent days a number of locations have set monthly (and a few all-time) records for both max temperatures and warm minimums. With temperatures surging to 40C (104F) in recent days, the country experienced its first “kokushobi” event. This term, which loosely translates to “cruel heat day,” was developed by the Japan Meteorological Agency to try to bring more awareness to the dangers of heat after record numbers of people died from heat related illnesses in last summer’s record heatwaves.

Meanwhile, in southwestern Europe, massive wildfires fueled by prolonged record heat and drought forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of people from parts of Spain, southwest France, and southern Italy on Thursday.

While some cooler weather is expected in western Europe this weekend, record heat is expected to make a strong comeback next week across much of the continent.

Maximum temperatures will likely approach 38C (100F) at times in Paris and Budapest by late next week, with a prolonged period of maximum temperatures near 40C (104F) in Rome (shown above) and Madrid.

In the US, another massive upper level area of high pressure will be expanding across the western and central states the next several days, resulting in building heat across much of the country.

The upper level high pressure area is forecast by the models to continue to build and persist over the Southwest, with the European ensemble model forecasting another 6000m high pressure area at 500 millibars over the Four Corners region by late next week.

The Southwest appears to be set for an unusually prolonged period of excessive heat for late July into early August — a period when the monsoon typically results in less extreme temperatures. The European ensemble model is showing the potential for August monthly records to be approached next weekend at locations like Phoenix and Las Vegas (the August record in Phoenix of 118F was actually set last year.)

Hot, dry and windy conditions along with periodic dry thunderstorms have been producing dangerous wildfire conditions in the Northwest, and that will continue through this weekend. The National Interagency Fire Center’s national preparedness level is at its highest level (5) and reports that 78 large fires are ongoing across the country, with 15 new fires in the last 24 hours.

Of course thunderstorms are still an issue, and flash flooding remains a particular concern along a slow moving cold front in the East and with monsoonal moisture in the Southwest.

Of particular concern over the next 24 hours will be parts of the Carolinas, where high resolution ensemble models show a strong signal for training thunderstorms that could produce more than 5” of rain. A moderate (level 3 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall is in place for this region.

Severe weather will also be a concern as disturbances move southeast across the central and eastern part of the country downstream of the developing high pressure area aloft.

Programming note: I am intending to post semi-regularly again — but family commitments and travel after the passing of my mom will mean those posts will not be as frequent or consistently timed as they typically have been.