Phoenix ties all-time record warm minimum temperature on Friday

Jul 25, 2026

Been traveling today, but wanted to get out a quick update on a few weather stories this evening.

It has been an active afternoon and early evening for severe thunderstorms from Montana into South Dakota, with about 50 reports of severe weather including 6 measured wind gusts of 75 mph or greater and a couple of reports of hail up to tennis ball sized.

The latest high resolution (HRRR) model shows the current complex of severe storms over eastern South Dakota maintaining itself as it moves east-southeast across Iowa overnight and eventually turns southeast into Illinois early Sunday. Conditions along the forecast track of these storms are quite moist and unstable, so there will be a continued risk of severe weather with damaging winds the primary threat.

Speaking of the moisture in the Midwest, the current dewpoint map (above) is quite remarkable, with 80F and higher dewpoints very common in the entire Missouri River Valley. Evapotranspiration from crops in the Midwest contributes to humidity at this time of year — but seeing such widespread 80+ dewpoints (and as high as the upper 80s in a few spots) is unusual.

At the opposite end of the moisture spectrum, dangerous fire weather conditions continue today across much of the northwest, including scattered dry thunderstorms across much of Montana. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected over much of this region again on Sunday.

Numerous large wildfires are spreading across this region this evening as shown by the black “hotspots” on this shortwave infrared satellite loop. Oregon in particular has many large fires across the central and eastern part of the state.

A number of record warm maximum and minimum temperatures have been set across the western US in the last 36 hours. This includes Phoenix tying its all-time record warm minimum temperature with a low of 97F on Friday. Dewpoint temperatures have been unusually high in the Southwest with readings the 50s and lower 60s common in the Phoenix metro area — combined with high temperatures of 117F both yesterday and today, heat index values have been as high as 120F.

The heat wave is still anticipated to build across much of the country over the next several days as an expansive area of high pressure aloft builds across the region.

Meanwhile, as Spain and France continue to battle wildfires that have forced the evacuation of more than 250,000 people, Europe is bracing for another massive heat wave this week which looks to once again threaten all-time records (Bluesky post from climatologist M. Herrera).

As an example, the most recent European model forecast for Berlin shows temperatures peaking at 41.2C (106.2F) on Friday, which would break its all-time record high of 39.9C (103.8F) — set just a month ago during the historic late June European heatwave.

More to come obviously on all of these stories in the next couple of days.

Programming note: I am posting semi-regularly again — but family commitments and travel after the passing of my mom will mean those posts will not be as frequent or consistently timed as they typically have been.