Another day of flash flood risks for New Mexico. Tropical threats in the Pacific, including Hawai’i.

Sep 23, 2026

Starting off today with breaking news in the ongoing fallout regarding the devastating July 2025 Texas Hill Country flash floods. The Houston Chronicle reported this morning that the Texas Rangers — the primary law enforcement agency for the state — served search warrants in the last couple of days with regard to a criminal investigation into Camp Mystic LLC, the entity that owned and operated the Christian children’s camp where 25 children and two counselors died.

In the affidavits, (Texas Rangers investigator Brant) Johnston wrote it was his belief that Camp Mystic LLC committed manslaughter, criminally negligent homicide, injury to a child, abandoning or endangering a child and deadly conduct. The investigator accused “agents and high managerial agents” of Camp Mystic LLC of those crimes.

“These offenses were committed against child campers — including both deceased victims and surviving campers of the flood event,” he said in the affidavits. “Management continuously treated the rising waters as a manageable logistical operation long after the situation had progressed into a life-or-death water rescue operation, delaying emergency measures until campers were actively trapped,” Johnston wrote elsewhere in the affidavits. Camp Mystic and the Eastlands did not respond to a request for comment on the accusations raised in the search warrant affidavits.

This is a obviously a serious development in a complex legal situation that already saw Camp Mystic and its owners facing civil lawsuits for gross negligence and wrongful death from most of the parents who lost children that night.

Back in November, I wrote a detailed summary of my concerns about the camp’s awareness of the flash flood risk and related preparedness, and it appears that the investigation by the Texas Rangers is finding even more evidence for this:

Camp Mystic’s emergency instructions stated that campers and counselors should shelter in place and stay in their cabins if floods occurred. But those written directives failed to give any evacuation instructions as required by state law, the affidavits stated. (Camp owner and executive director) Tweety Eastland told Johnston during an interview in June that the emergency instruction sheet had remained the same since she arrived at Camp Mystic in 1976, according to the affidavits. While Camp Mystic had an outdoor public address system with seven speakers, no one used it to direct campers and counselors to depart their cabins for higher ground though the camp’s electricity was still on at 3:50 a.m. the morning of the disaster. Johnston noted that he reviewed a photograph showing multiple girls holding on to pillars near the pavilion — the flood lights were still on at about that time.

While of course the entire catastrophe that occurred in Kerr County the morning of July 4th was a tremendous tragedy, the more we learn about the specific incidents at Camp Mystic, the more it seems that there was a serious lack of understanding of the devastating threat that a rapidly rising Guadalupe River would to the children, counselors and staff at Camp Mystic — and unfortunately there appears to have been hubris in the face of what threat was perceived.

As a parent myself, I truly cannot comprehend the grief and anger these parents must feel — the body of one child has yet to be found or recovered more than a year later. Months of legal proceedings — now apparently criminal in addition to the civil lawsuits — sadly now lie ahead of them. I will share additional details as more information comes to light.

After 5” of rain produced serious flash flooding resulting in water rescues and damage in Mora, NM, the persistent surge of monsoonal moisture will fuel more thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding across New Mexico and nearby areas this afternoon and night. A moderate (level 3 of 4) risk is in place for much of the central and eastern part of the state. Slow moving thunderstorms with heavy downpours will also cause some flash flooding in the central Appalachians this afternoon as well.

The Pacific remains the primary focus for the tropics, and unfortunately there are now some rather significant impacts for land to consider.

Polo weakened slightly overnight and is now a category 4 hurricane as it starts to slowly move parallel to the southwest Mexican coast. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact this coastal region the next few days, potentially producing flash floods and mudslides. Polo will move more westerly with time, but then turn north in the general direction of Baja California. The exact longer term track of Polo will be complicated by potential interaction with what remains from Hurricane Odalys which will be coming up from the southwest in the same general direction. Given the serious uncertainty with regard to the exact strength and location of both systems 5-7 days, right now all we can say is the long term situation is uncertain and will need to be closely monitored for potential impacts — including possibly some further intrusion of moisture and heavy rainfall into the Southwest US.

The system I have been talking about for the last few days southeast of Hawai’i has continued to become better organized, and NHC has redesignated it Tropical Depression 15-E. It is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, and then eventually become a formidable hurricane as it moves in the general direction of the Big Island. As I have been discussing, the steering currents become complex and uncertain in a few days, and while a turn more toward the west or west-northwest is likely, when and how that evolution occurs is still quite uncertain.

At a minimum, yet another massive rainfall event appears to be looming for the Big Island and potentially Mau’i, with the potential for serious flash flooding and mudslides. Depending on the exact evolution and track of the system, more direct wind and coastal impacts are also possible — and tropical storm or hurricane watches will likely be issued for parts of Hawai’i later today.

Finally, we continue to expect the evolution of an intense Nor’easter storm over the next several days. Coastal flooding, strong wind gusts, and heavy rainfall are all anticipated over the next several days.

I will have more on all of these weather stories with occasional updates through Substack Chat (paid subscriber benefit), Substack Notes and social media.